Geographic disparities and temporal changes of diabetes-related mortality risks in Florida: a retrospective study.

Abstract

Over the last few decades, diabetes-related mortality risks (DRMR) have increased in Florida. Although there is evidence of geographic disparities in pre-diabetes and diabetes prevalence, little is known about disparities of DRMR in Florida. Understanding these disparities is important for guiding control programs and allocating health resources to communities most at need. Therefore, the objective of this study was to investigate geographic disparities and temporal changes of DRMR in Florida. Retrospective mortality data for deaths that occurred from 2010 to 2019 were obtained from the Florida Department of Health. Tenth International Classification of Disease codes E10-E14 were used to identify diabetes-related deaths. County-level mortality risks were computed and presented as number of deaths per 100,000 persons. Spatial Empirical Bayesian (SEB) smoothing was performed to adjust for spatial autocorrelation and the small number problem. High-risk spatial clusters of DRMR were identified using Tango's flexible spatial scan statistics. Geographic distribution and high-risk mortality clusters were displayed using ArcGIS, whereas seasonal patterns were visually represented in Excel. A total of 54,684 deaths were reported during the study period. There was an increasing temporal trend as well as seasonal patterns in diabetes mortality risks with high risks occurring during the winter. The highest mortality risk (8.1 per 100,000 persons) was recorded during the winter of 2018, while the lowest (6.1 per 100,000 persons) was in the fall of 2010. County-level SEB smoothed mortality risks varied by geographic location, ranging from 12.6 to 81.1 deaths per 100,000 persons. Counties in the northern and central parts of the state tended to have high mortality risks, whereas southern counties consistently showed low mortality risks. Similar to the geographic distribution of DRMR, significant high-risk spatial clusters were also identified in the central and northern parts of Florida. Geographic disparities of DRMR exist in Florida, with high-risk spatial clusters being observed in rural central and northern areas of the state. There is also evidence of both increasing temporal trends and Winter peaks of DRMR. These findings are helpful for guiding allocation of resources to control the disease, reduce disparities, and improve population health.