Abstract
Understanding historical context can help clarify the ecological and biogeographic characteristics of species population changes. The sable (Martes zibellina) population has decreased dramatically in Northeast China since the l950s, and understanding the changes in its distribution over time is necessary to support conservation efforts. To achieve this goal, we integrated ecological niche modeling and historical records of sables to estimate the magnitude of change in their distribution over time. Our results revealed a 51.71% reduction in their distribution in 2000–2016 compared with the potential distribution in the 1950s. This reduction was related to climate change (Pearson's correlation: Bio1, −.962, p < .01; Bio2, −.962, p < .01; Bio5, .817, p < .05; Bio6, .847, p < .05) and human population size (−.956, p < .01). The sable population tended to migrate in different directions and elevations over time in different areas due to climate change: In the Greater Khingan Mountains, they moved northward and to lower elevations; in the Lesser Khingan Mountains, they moved northward; and in the Changbai Mountains, they move southward and to higher elevations. Active conservation strategies should be considered in locations where sable populations have migrated or may migrate to.
Highlights
The sable (Martes zibellina), a species of marten, is a medium-sized carnivore distributed widely in Russia, Mongolia, China, North Korea, and Japan (Proulx et al, 2005)
Our results offer an opportunity to understand the ecological and biogeographic characteristics of species population decline, thereby improving the predictive power of conservation management for sables and other species in similar ecology niches
Our results suggest that the sable population in the Greater Khingan Mountains tended to move northward and to lower elevations, while the population in the Lesser Khingan Mountains predominantly moved northward
Summary
The sable (Martes zibellina), a species of marten (family: Mustelidae), is a medium-sized carnivore distributed widely in Russia, Mongolia, China, North Korea, and Japan (Proulx et al, 2005). Previous research revealed that quantitative analyses are useful for assessing the utility and potential limitations of historical data to develop a roadmap for understanding the population size changes over time (Boshoff & Kerley, 2010; Channell & Lomolino, 2000; Davies et al, 2014; Hortal, Jimenez-Valverde, Gomez, Lobo, & Baselga, 2008; Rick & Lockwood, 2012; Turvey et al, 2015; Yang et al, 2016; Zhang et al, 2016). Finding complete datasets containing high-quality information on the spatial distribution of biodiversity indicators within a region over time is difficult (Davies et al, 2014; Hortal et al, 2008) Such historical data are often incomplete and spatially biased (Hortal et al, 2008; Yang et al, 2016; Zhang et al, 2016). Our results offer an opportunity to understand the ecological and biogeographic characteristics of species population decline, thereby improving the predictive power of conservation management for sables and other species in similar ecology niches
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