GeoFEM Kinematic Earthquake Cycle Simulation in Southwest Japan

Abstract

— We construct a viscoelastic FEM model with 3-D configuration of the subducting Philippine Sea plate in Southwest Japan to simulate recent 300-year kinematic earthquake cycles along the Nankai-Suruga-Sagami trough, based on the kinematic earthquake cycle model. This 300-year simulation contains a series of three great interplate earthquakes. The inclusion of viscoelasticity produces characteristic velocity field during earthquake cycles regardless of the assumed constant plate coupling throughout the interseismic period. Just after the occurrence of interplate earthquakes, the viscoelastic relaxation creates the seaward motion in the inland region. In the middle period, the seaward motion gradually decreases, and the resultant velocity field is similar to the elastic one. Later, just before the next interplate earthquake, displacements due to the interplate coupling in the viscoelastic material are distributed more broadly in the forearc region than in the purely elastic one, since the viscoelastic relaxation due to the previous earthquake mostly disappears. The effects of such interplate earthquake cycles on five major inland faults in southwest Japan, where large intraplate earthquakes occurred during this period, are quantitatively evaluated using the Coulomb failure function (CFF). The calculated change in CFF successfully predicts the occurrence of the 1995 Kobe earthquake (M∼7). The occurrence of other inland earthquakes, however, cannot be explained by the calculated changes in CFF, and especially the 1891 Nobi earthquake (M∼8), the largest inland earthquake in Japan, which occurred at the time close to the local minimum of CFF. This implies that further improvements are necessary for our FEM modeling, such as the modeling of steady east-west compressive force and stress interactions between the inland faults.