Geoecological analysis of the impact of anthropogenic factors on outbreak of emergencies and their prediction

Abstract

The purpose of this study is geoecological analysis of the risk of natural fires and other emergencies of an ecological nature based on the location of high-risk objects in the territory of the Kharkiv region. The following tasks were solved in the work: calculation of the risk of an ecologically dangerous event depending on the density of placement of objects of high danger in the region; Creation of a chart-map on the level of danger of environmental threat in the districts of the region; the search for the dependence of the area of forest fires on the density of the population, the number of high risk facilities, etc. An analysis of the influence of anthropogenic factors on the occurrence of natural fires on the example of the Kharkiv region was carried out. Distribution of potential risk and population density in the studied area allows us to obtain quantitative estimation of social risk for the population. Excessive population density in some areas of the region is one of the factors that increase the material and social risk of the territory and population of the region from natural disasters and man-made disasters. We created mapping zoning of multi-level districts of the region, the risk of an emergency reflects the patterns of spatial structure of potential sources of emergency situations and allows to increase the readiness of the executive and authorized services to act in the event of sudden emergencies and to act for their prevention. Available data allowed us to estimate the density of the placement of potential sources of man-made emergency situations for all districts of the region, which gives us the right, with a certain degree of conditionality, to speak about the extent of the technogenic danger of the territory of the studied areas of the Kharkiv region. We propose to apply a complex factor taking into account the population density, density of placement of objects of high danger and the proportion of high risk objects in the area of the forestry organization in comparison with the total number of objects in the region. For the simultaneous evaluation of both natural and anthropogenic conditions of forest fires in the region, we propose to use the methodology of scoring on which they are evaluated in a four-point system, taking into account the five main characterizing indicators : population density; forest area; the density of high risk facilities; climatic and weather conditions; the share of high risk facilities. Comparison of information on the average number of fires on the lands of the forest fund of Kharkiv region over the past ten years with the results of our typology of the areas shows some correlation. The results of studies on the assessment of the risks of the occurrence of fires depending on natural and anthropogenic factors can be used for zoning similar areas and forecasting the fire situation.