Geodetic modeling of moderate-size foreshocks with mainshocks and the implication to earthquake trigger mechanisms

Abstract

Foreshocks are commonly observed before the happening of earthquakes in seismic catalogs. They provide critical precursors to reveal the process for the nucleation and rupture of earthquakes. Two mechanisms, pre-slip and cascade triggering, are thought to be the main physical process to explain the foreshock sequences and the mainshock. However, different from the regular micro-magnitude foreshock sequences (e.g. M1.0-3.0), some moderate-size (e.g. ~M6) foreshocks are also found before the mainshock (e.g. the M6.4 foreshock before the 2017 M7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake). How these moderate-size foreshocks affect the happen of mainshocks as well as their possible triggering mechanisms are still ambiguous and less studied.In this study, fortunately, we obtain geodetic observations of moderate-size (M5.8 and M6.5) foreshocks for the 2020 M6.0 Turkey and 2022 M6.9 Taiwan earthquakes using Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images. It is very rare for the geodetic observations of such foreshocks as they are very temporally close to the mainshocks within one day (i.e. ~10 hours and ~17 hours). We then invert for the fault geometries and slip distributions for these two earthquakes together with their moderate foreshocks constrained by these geodetic observations. Coulomb stresses on the fault planes of mainshocks produced by the moderate-size foreshocks are also calculated as well as the static stress drops of the mainshocks. Our study provides a unique opportunity to explore the possible triggering mechanism between moderate-size foreshocks and mainshocks as well as the conditions for the happening of earthquakes.