Geodetic exploration of strain along the El Pilar Fault in northeastern Venezuela

Abstract

AbstractWe use Global Navigation Satellite Systems observations in northeastern Venezuela to constrain the El Pilar Fault (EPF) kinematics and to explore the effects of the variable elastic properties of the surrounding medium and of the fault geometry on inferred slip rates and locking depth. The velocity field exhibits an asymmetric velocity gradient on either side of the EPF. We use five different approaches to explore possible models to explain this asymmetry. First, we infer a 1.6 km locking depth using a classic elastic half‐space dislocation model. Second, we infer a 1.5 km locking depth and a 0.33 asymmetry coefficient using a heterogeneous asymmetric model, including contrasting material properties on either side of a vertical fault, suggesting that the igneous‐metamorphic terranes on the northern side are ~2 times more rigid than the sedimentary southern side. Third, we use a three‐dimensional elastostatic model to evaluate the presence of a compliant zone, suggesting a 30% reduction of rigidity in the upper 3 km at the depth of a 1 to 5 km wide fault zone. Fourth, we evaluate the distribution of fault slip, revealing a widespread partial creep pattern in the eastern upper segment, while the upper western segment exhibits a partially locked area, which coincides with the rupture surface of the 1797 and 1929 earthquakes. To supplement these models, we upgrade the previously published displacement simulation method using nonvertical dislocations with data acquired between 2003 and 2013. The localized aseismic displacement pattern associated with creeping or partially creeping fault segments could explain the low level of historic seismicity.