Geodetic evidence for low coupling on the Hellenic subduction plate interface

Abstract

We develop a block model for the Aegean and surrounding areas, constrained by Global Positioning System (GPS), in order to investigate the degree of coupling on the Hellenic subduction interface (i.e., the fraction of the motion across the plate boundary accommodated by elastic strain accumulation). We use previously published models, and seismicity to define the geometry of the interface separating the down-going Nubian slab from the overriding Aegean. This model provides a good fit to the GPS observations; for the ∼200,000 km2 Aegean block the wrms of the residual velocities is 1.4 mm/yr for 80 GPS velocity estimates, approximately the 95% level of the GPS velocity uncertainties. We investigate the degree of coupling on the seismically active plate interface, the Hellenic trench splay fault (believed to be the source of the 365 AD Great Crete Earthquake and Tsunami), and the Kephalonia transform fault by comparing the modeled GPS residual velocity field for a range of coupling values. The GPS observations are almost insensitive to coupling on the Kephalonia transform fault, because of the vertical dip of the fault that creates interseismic deformation only close to the fault where few GPS sites exist. The absence of resolvable shortening of the leading edge of the Aegean Plate precludes coupling of more than 0.2 (20% of the full Nubia–Aegean convergence rate) on the modeled plate interface. Because of the shallow dip of the plate interface and trench splay fault, and high rate of convergence, if these boundaries were fully coupled, high elastic strain rates would be expected to extend well into the overriding Aegean plate. Based on our preferred value for the degree of coupling (0.1), and assuming characteristic earthquake behavior, we estimate a recurrence time for great earthquakes with slip similar to that for the 365 Crete event of 5700–8300 yr, consistent with the absence of subsequent great earthquakes on this segment of the subduction zone.