Geochemical precursory characteristics of soil gas Rn, Hg, H2, and CO2 related to the 2019 Xiahe Ms5.7 earthquake across the northern margin of West Qinling fault zone, Central China

Abstract

The Xiahe Ms5.7 earthquake occurred in Xiahe county, Gannan prefecture, China (35.10°N, 102.69°E) on October 28, 2019, with a source depth of 10 km. This study investigates the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of cross-fault soil gas concentrations prior to the Xiahe Ms5.7 earthquake by analyzing Rn, Hg, H2, and CO2 data collected from 11 profiles across the northern margin of the West Qinling fault zone from 2016 to 2019. The spatial distribution of these gases showed varying trends, with Rn concentration intensity decreasing from the Wushan segment to the east and west sections, while Hg, H2, and CO2 all broke the trend in the West Qinling fault zone's northern margin. The soil gas concentration intensity demonstrated a significant response to the Xiahe Ms5.7 earthquake, particularly in the west Ganjia sections. By integrating the seismogenic model and numerical simulation results, we explored the physical mechanism underlying these abnormal trends. Our findings suggest that the continuous decline characteristic of fault gas could be a valuable indicator of fracture tectonic activity, while an upward trend after continuous decline may signal a medium and short-term seismogenic event in the source area. These results provide a foundation for improved tracking of earthquake location and timing in a fault zone through cross-fault soil gas methods, highlighting the importance of enhancing deep fluid flow monitoring and seismogenic model research in fault zones.