Abstract
Abstract. Unscientific utilization of land use and land cover due to rapid growth of urban population deteriorates urban condition. Urban growth, land use change and future urban land demand are key concerns of urban planners. This paper is aimed to model urban land use change essential for sustainable urban development. GI science technology was employed to study the urban change dynamics using Markov Chain and CA-Markov and predicted the magnitude and spatial pattern. It was performed using the probability transition matrix from the Markov chain process, the suitability map of each land use/cover types and the contiguity filter. Suitability maps were generated from the MCE process where weight was derived from the pair wise comparison in the AHP process considering slope, land capability, distance to road, and settlement and water bodies as criterion of factor maps. Thematic land use land cover types of 1999, 2006, and 2013 of Landsat sensors were classified using MLC algorithm. The spatial extent increase from 1999 to 2013 in built up , bush and forest was observed to be 48.30 percent,79.48 percent and 7.79 percent, respectively, while decrease in agriculture and water bodies were 30.26 percent and 28.22 percent. The predicted urban LULC for 2020 and 2027 would provide useful inputs to the decision makers. Built up and bush expansion are explored as the main driving force for loss of agriculture and river areas and has the potential to continue in future also. The abandoned area of river bed has been converted to built- up areas.
Highlights
The urban sector has been given high priority by Nepalese policy makers since efforts for planned development began
Sustainable urban growth can be achieved by providing urban facilities to growing future urban population future urban land demanded
This paper aims to model the urban land use change and its future spatial prediction using Markov and CA-Markov in Butwal municipality, Nepal
Summary
The urban sector has been given high priority by Nepalese policy makers since efforts for planned development began. This strategy is essential because urban sector contributes 60 percent of GDP and 4.5 times higher of average income than rural income (Karki 2004) and beside this, cities have been focal points of economic activity and engines of economic growth; centers of excellence for education, health care, innovation, entrepreneurship, business, commerce, industry, culture and social services; large markets for a wide range of products, goods and services; nodal points for transportation, telecommunications and information technology systems; and the primary location for employment and livelihood opportunities ( UN 2002 ). The government of Nepal has recognized that targets of poverty reduction and achievement of the MDGs have not been kept pace with increasing population growth To meet this short fall and to fulfill rising expectation about the standard of living, urban growth and its sustainable management must be addressed. Sustainable urban growth can be achieved by providing urban facilities to growing future urban population future urban land demanded
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