Geo-disaster prediction with double-block mechanics based on Newton force measurement

Abstract

The prediction of earthquakes remains challenging. An unconventional idea that earthquakes can be predicted is proposed, based on the mechanics of the double block system (DBS). The central point of the mechanics of DBS lies in the measurement of the forces acting on the surface separating the two blocks, the relation of which should obey Newton’s laws (referred to as Newton’s forces). A Newton’s force monitoring system (NFMS), consisting of in situ measurement, remote sensing and indoor monitoring, has been developed. The key instrument of the NFMS is the constant-resistance and large-deformation (CRLD) bolt incorporated with a negative Poisson’s ratio (NPR) structure, referred to as CRLD bolt or NPR bolt, because of its unconventional performance that makes measurement of the Newton’s forces possible in seismically-active faults. The basic analytical and experimental work on formulating the DBS and NPR cable is outlined. The methods and techniques of the NFMS are presented. The validity of the mechanics of DBS and the applicability of the NRMS were verified by indoor experiments on Wenchuan and Longmen mountain active faults. Among many successful applications of NFMS to forecasting landslides, one field case in Nanfen open pit iron mines is presented; four field cases of the application of NFMS in registering the activities of the seismically active faults are also presented.