Gentrification as a Factor in the Incidence of Firearm Injuries

Abstract

Firearm injuries are an epidemic in the US; more than 45 000 fatal injuries were recorded in 2020 alone. Gaining a deeper understanding of socioeconomic factors that may contribute to increasing firearm injury rates is critical to prevent future injuries. To explore whether neighborhood gentrification is associated with firearm injury incidence rates over time. This cross-sectional study used nationwide, urban US Census tract-level data on gentrification between 2010 and 2019 and firearm injuries data collected between 2014 and 2019. All urban Census tracts, as defined by Rural Urban Commuting Area codes 1 to 3, were included in the analysis, for a total of 59 379 tracts examined from 2014 through 2019. Data were analyzed from January 2022 through April 2023. Gentrification, defined to be an area in a central city neighborhood with median housing prices appreciating over the median regional value and a median household income at or below the 40th percentile of the median regional household income and continuing for at least 2 consecutive years. The number of firearm injuries, controlling for Census tract population characteristics. A total of 59 379 urban Census tracts were evaluated for gentrification; of these tracts, 14 125 (23.8%) were identified as gentrifying, involving approximately 57 million residents annually. The firearm injury incidence rate for gentrifying neighborhoods was 62% higher than the incidence rate in nongentrifying neighborhoods with similar sociodemographic characteristics (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 1.62; 95% CI, 1.56-1.69). In a multivariable analysis, firearm injury incidence rates increased by 57% per year for low-income Census tracts that did not gentrify (IRR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.56-1.58), 42% per year for high-income tracts that did not gentrify (IRR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.41-1.43), and 49% per year for gentrifying tracts (IRR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.48-1.50). Neighborhoods undergoing the gentrification process experienced an additional 26% increase in firearm injury incidence above baseline increase experienced in neighborhoods not undergoing gentrification (IRR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.23-1.30). Results of this study suggest that gentrification is associated with an increase in the incidence of firearm injuries within gentrifying neighborhoods. Social disruption and residential displacement associated with gentrification may help explain this finding, although future research is needed to evaluate the underlying mechanisms. These findings support use of targeted firearm prevention interventions in communities experiencing gentrification.