Genotypic and phenotypic quantitative microbial risk assessment model of human salmonellosis related to the consumption of chicken meat in the central region of Mexico

Abstract

Chicken meat is often associated withSalmonella entericacontamination worldwide. This study proposes a risk assessment model for human salmonellosis linked to the domestic consumption of chicken meat in the central region of Mexico, incorporating genotypic and phenotypic data. SixS. entericagroups were used, considering the presence of specific virulence genes and multidrug resistance (MDR). Sixteen exposure scenarios were established considering retail point (RP1 = fresh market/butcher shop; RP2 = mini-super/supermarket), transportation, home storage, cooking, and cross-contamination. The model predicted a mean annual salmonellosis cases of 66,754 due to chicken consumption (CI95% 10775–231606). The mean probability of illness (Pill) among the exposure scenarios ranged from 2.5 × 10-9 to 3.7 × 10-6, 7.7 × 10-8 to 1.1 × 10-4, and 6.7 × 10-4 to 7.8 × 10-2 for low, moderate, and high virulence groups. Exposure scenarios with the highest Pill were not responsible for most cases due to their low frequency of occurrence. The high virulence/ MDR group was responsible for most cases (66.5 %), despite the low S. enterica prevalence (RP1 0.5 % and RP2 5.0 %). The years lost due to disability (YLD) value for MDR was 2.6 × higher than for non-MDR. Spearman rank showed that the inputs with higher influence on the variability of salmonellosis depended on the type of exposure scenario. For example, the cooking temperature and time had the most significant influence in the scenarios where S. enterica can survive after cooking.Including the microbial genotypic and phenotypic characteristics in risk assessment modeling highlights the importance of focusing on high-virulent and MDR strains, which are not the most frequent but represent the highest public health risk.