Genomic vulnerability and socio-economic threats under climate change in an African rainforest bird.

Thomas B Smith,Kristen Ruegg,Mary K Gonder,Virginia Zaunbrecher,Ying Zhen,Brenda Larison,Wolfgang Buermann,Henri A Thomassen,Kevin Njabo,Nicola M Anthony,Trevon L Fuller,Ryan J Harrigan

doi:10.1111/eva.13193

Abstract

Preserving biodiversity under rapidly changing climate conditions is challenging. One approach for estimating impacts and their magnitude is to model current relationships between genomic and environmental data and then to forecast those relationships under future climate scenarios. In this way, understanding future genomic and environmental relationships can help guide management decisions, such as where to establish new protected areas where populations might be buffered from high temperatures or major changes in rainfall. However, climate warming is only one of many anthropogenic threats one must consider in rapidly developing parts of the world. In Central Africa, deforestation, mining, and infrastructure development are accelerating population declines of rainforest species. Here we investigate multiple anthropogenic threats in a Central African rainforest songbird, the little greenbul (Andropadus virens). We examine current climate and genomic variation in order to explore the association between genome and environment under future climate conditions. Specifically, we estimate Genomic Vulnerability, defined as the mismatch between current and predicted future genomic variation based on genotype–environment relationships modeled across contemporary populations. We do so while considering other anthropogenic impacts. We find that coastal and central Cameroon populations will require the greatest shifts in adaptive genomic variation, because both climate and land use in these areas are predicted to change dramatically. In contrast, in the more northern forest–savanna ecotones, genomic shifts required to keep pace with climate will be more moderate, and other anthropogenic impacts are expected to be comparatively low in magnitude. While an analysis of diverse taxa will be necessary for making comprehensive conservation decisions, the species‐specific results presented illustrate how evolutionary genomics and other anthropogenic threats may be mapped and used to inform mitigation efforts. To this end, we present an integrated conceptual model demonstrating how the approach for a single species can be expanded to many taxonomically diverse species.

Highlights

To avoid extinction under future climate change, species will either need to move to more suitable areas, or respond in situ, through plastic and/or adaptive mechanisms (Gienapp et al, 2007)
The goals of this paper are three-fold: (1) to explore how the current patterns of intraspecific genomic variation and their environmental correlates can be used to identify priority areas for conservation under future climate change, (2) to integrate this information with projected anthropogenic impacts from natural resource extraction, infrastructure, and plans for large-scale agriculture (Edwards et al, 2014; Gillet et al, 2016; Mahmoud et al, 2017; Sloan et al, 2017) for a single species to illustrate the approach, and (3) building off these goals, to develop a comprehensive approach and road map that is applicable for multiple species and communities
Our results underscore the importance of adopting a comprehensive approach to conservation planning

Summary

Introduction

To avoid extinction under future climate change, species will either need to move to more suitable areas, or respond in situ, through plastic and/or adaptive mechanisms (Gienapp et al, 2007). Because mutations rates are generally too low to keep up with rapid environmental changes, sufficient standing genetic variation in relevant traits must be present for populations to be able to adapt (Carroll et al, 2014; Smith et al, 2014). Information on the occurrence and abundance of species has long been available and used to guide conservation plans. While these standard metrics have been fundamentally important for inclusion in conservation planning, they alone may no longer be sufficient, for regions experiencing rapid change. In other words, maximizing genetic variation can enhance the potential for natural selection to act in ways that allow populations to adapt and persist

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