Genetic-Demographic Analysis of Natural Reproduction Parameters and Crow’s Indices in Ethnic Groups of Moscow and St. Petersburg (Based on the 2010 Russia’s Population Census)

Abstract

Based on the analysis of the materials of the 2010 All-Russia’s Population Census and the demographic statistics of Rosstat Agency, the genetic-demographic parameters of temporal and interethnic variability of natural reproduction parameters and selection parameters (Crow indices) were calculated for the most numerous ethnic groups of Moscow and St. Petersburg. A decrease in the selection component due to differential prereproductive mortality was shown to decrease to the minimum possible values (index Im 0.01). In both megacities, interethnic differences were revealed in the parameters of natural reproduction and the selection component due to differential fertility, while the birth rate in both capitals for all ethnic groups, except for Uzbeks in St. Petersburg, is lower than required even for simple reproduction of the population, and hence stable reproduction of the gene pool. This indicates the unfavorable nature of the genetic and demographic processes in all the represented nationalities of the megacities. The If index ranges from 0.2 to 0.5. The temporal dynamics of the average number of offspring and its variance, as well as the If index, traced according to the data on the age cohorts of women born in the 1940s–1960s, is weakly expressed – the tendency to selection relaxation is not observed for all the studied ethnic groups. It is shown that the intensity of intergroup selection, due to interethnic differences in fertility, in the population of St. Petersburg increases from older age cohorts to younger ones, while in the population of Moscow it does not change significantly, while the temporal dynamics of this indicator, calculated on the base of the materials of the 2002 All-Russia’s Population Census for cohorts born in 1930s–1950s has the opposite direction. The genetic-demographic consequences of the revealed tendencies are discussed.