Abstract
Climate change will lead to loss of range for many species, and thus to loss of genetic diversity crucial for their long-term persistence. We analysed range-wide genetic diversity (amplified fragment length polymorphisms) in 9581 samples from 1200 populations of 27 northern plant species, to assess genetic consequences of range reduction and potential association with species traits. We used species distribution modelling (SDM, eight techniques, two global circulation models and two emission scenarios) to predict loss of range and genetic diversity by 2080. Loss of genetic diversity varied considerably among species, and this variation could be explained by dispersal adaptation (up to 57%) and by genetic differentiation among populations (FST; up to 61%). Herbs lacking adaptations for long-distance dispersal were estimated to lose genetic diversity at higher rate than dwarf shrubs adapted to long-distance dispersal. The expected range reduction in these 27 northern species was larger than reported for temperate plants, and all were predicted to lose genetic diversity according to at least one scenario. SDM combined with FST estimates and/or with species trait information thus allows the prediction of species' vulnerability to climate change, aiding rational prioritization of conservation efforts.
Highlights
When addressing impacts of climate change on biological diversity, most studies treat a species as a unit and ignore intraspecific genetic variation [1,2]
Our results show that the expected genetic consequences of climate change differ markedly among species according to their adaptations to seed dispersal and growth forms, and that it is possible to predict the genetic consequences of range reduction by combining species modelling approaches with prior knowledge on species traits and/ or FST estimates
The rather narrow 90% CI observed for the majority of species indicate that loss of genetic diversity was in most cases rather independent on the order in which parts of the range were lost, and that loss could be estimated with high precision
Summary
When addressing impacts of climate change on biological diversity, most studies treat a species as a unit and ignore intraspecific genetic variation [1,2]. While range shift may alter the genetic diversity within species [11,12], range reduction is most likely to cause loss of genetic diversity [13,14] and may severely limit the species’ ability to adapt to a changing climate [4]. In the only plant species studied to date, the wind-dispersed dwarf shrub Salix herbacea, a loss of 50 per cent of its European range was estimated to cause a loss of only 5 per cent of its genetic diversity because of its high dispersal ability and history of broad-fronted postglacial colonization [18]. Species traits that influence the distribution of genetic diversity within and among populations [19,20] may determine the susceptibility of species to genetic diversity loss when their ranges are reduced, and their consequent vulnerability to loss of evolutionary potential [3]
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