Abstract
BackgroundImportation of foreign genetics is a widely used genetic improvement strategy. However, even if the foreign genetic merit is currently greater than the domestic genetic merit, differences in foreign and domestic trends mean that the long-term competitiveness of an importation strategy cannot be guaranteed. Gene flow models are used to quantify the impact that a specific subpopulation, such as foreign genetics, can have over time on the genetic or economic benefit of a domestic industry.MethodsWe used a deterministic recursive gene flow model to predict the commercial performance of lambs born across various subpopulations. Numerous breeding strategies were evaluated by varying market share, proportions of rams selected for mating, genetic trend, superiority of foreign genetics over domestic genetics and frequency of importation. Specifically, an Ireland-New Zealand case study was simulated to quantify the potential gain that could be made by using foreign sire contributions (New Zealand) in a domestic sheep industry (Ireland).ResultsGenetic and economic gains were generated from alternative breeding strategies. The ‘base scenario’ (i.e. representing the current industry) predicted an average genetic merit value of €2.51 for lambs born and an annualised cumulative benefit of €45 million (m) after 20 years. Maximum genetic (€9.45 for lambs born) and economic (annualised cumulative benefit of €180 m after 20 years) benefits were achieved by implementing the ‘PRO-intense-market scenario’ which involved shifting market share away from conservative domestic breeders and reducing the proportion of rams that were selected for mating by progressive domestic breeders from the top 40% to the top 20%, without the use of any foreign genetics. The ‘PROFOR scenario’, which considered the use of foreign and progressive domestic genetics, predicted an average genetic merit value of €7.37 for lambs born and an annualised cumulative benefit of €144 m, after 20 years.ConclusionsOur results demonstrate that there is opportunity for a domestic industry to increase industry benefits without the use of foreign genetics but through an attempt to shift the market share away from conservative domestic breeders towards progressive domestic breeders. However, the importation and use of progressive foreign genetics may be an effective method to trigger a change in behaviour of conservative domestic breeders towards the use of progressive genetics.
Highlights
Importation of foreign genetics is a widely used genetic improvement strategy
Gene flow models have been used in the sheep, beef and dairy cattle industries to quantify the impact of performance recording, genomic selection, genetic evaluations or the use of foreign genetics on genetic improvement [1, 2, 9]
Scenarios investigated: ‘base scenario’ represents the current Irish industry; ‘progressive subpopulation (PRO)-intense scenario’ incorporates a reduction in the proportion of rams that are selected for mating from the top 40% to the top 20% and no shift in market share; ‘PRO-market scenario’ gradually shifts the market share of the conservative subpopulation (CON) subpopulation to the PRO subpopulation; ‘PRO-intense-market scenario’ includes a combination of a shifting market share towards the PRO subpopulation and a reduction in the proportion of rams that are selected for mating from the top 40% to the top 20%; ‘progressive breeders using foreign genetics subpopulation (PROFOR) scenario’ shifts the market share of the CON subpopulation between PRO, foreign rams (FOR) and PROFOR; ‘FOR’, ‘FOR-5’ and ‘FOR-10’ scenarios includes the commercial subpopulation sourcing FOR sires directly from New Zealand once, every 5 years or every 10 years, respectively
Summary
Importation of foreign genetics is a widely used genetic improvement strategy. even if the foreign genetic merit is currently greater than the domestic genetic merit, differences in foreign and domestic trends mean that the long-term competitiveness of an importation strategy cannot be guaranteed. Gene flow models are used to quantify the impact that a specific subpopulation, such as foreign genetics, can have over time on the genetic or economic benefit of a domestic industry. Each subpopulation or tier contributes differently to Fetherstone et al Genet Sel Evol (2021) 53:5 the rates of genetic and economic benefits achieved [5]. A gene flow model can be generated to identify optimal breeding strategies that could maximise the economic and genetic benefits. Gene flow models have been used in the sheep, beef and dairy cattle industries to quantify the impact of performance recording, genomic selection, genetic evaluations or the use of foreign genetics on genetic improvement [1, 2, 9]
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