Abstract

This paper examines the quantitative scenarios for low-carbon futures of the Turkish energy system at aggregated (country level) and regionally disaggregated (NUTS-1 level) levels. We have employed four different storylines for the future European energy system. They are quantified and implemented for the European energy system (30 regions, mostly single countries, including Turkey) using the open-source global energy system model, GENeSYS-MOD v3.0. We have compared the results of all scenarios at aggregated and disaggregated levels and found that there are significant differences among them. Specifically, the hydrogen production (and its use) has increased considerably in the disaggregated model when compared to the aggregated level results. The major reason for these differences is found to be the better estimation of regional renewable capacity factors (wind and solar) in the disaggregated level compared to aggregated level.

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