Genesis and evolution of unrest episodes at Campi Flegrei caldera: The role of thermal fluid‐dynamical processes in the geothermal system

Abstract

We develop a model for describing water flow in a porous medium under the effect of thermal and pressure gradients. The model simulates geothermal systems in calderas. Given the boundary conditions and the fluid‐dynamical properties of the medium, the model allows computation, in fluid‐dynamical stationary states, of parameters characterizing the flow, such as flow velocity and temperature and pressure distributions at depth. The model is applied to investigate the effects of the local geothermal system on the unrest episodes at Campi Flegrei caldera. Using experimentally determined fluid‐dynamical parameters for the caldera rocks, we show that changes of water flow in shallow aquifers under the effect of pressure and/or temperature variations within the geothermal system can be very important in the genesis and evolution of unrest crises. In particular, they can strongly amplify the effect of pressure increase in the magma chamber on ground uplift. They can also explain the timescales of evolution of ground movements in terms of transit times of the water front and of the connected temperature fronts due to advective transport. On such grounds an integrated mechanic‐thermal fluid‐dynamical model was built, allowing us to give a semiquantitative, global explanation to the genesis and evolution of unrest phenomena. Results obtained here can be generalized to other similar calderas.