Abstract
A simplified wall assembly consisting of four material elements is considered. Optional vapor retarder and thermal resistances are located between the elements. A simplified numerical model is presented to perform probability-based risk analysis using the Monte Carlo method. The risk assessment of the wall assembly considers the interior and exterior climatic loads. The moisture transport mechanism accounted for in the analysis is diffusion. A prescribed rain load is assumed to be transferred directly to a chosen outer susceptible material element in the construction. A case study with a wooden wall structure is analyzed and the probability distribution of the time of wetness is presented for a case using 30 different climatic years, randomly varying indoor moisture excess, indoor temperature, and rain leakages. The results show that, in the case investigated in this paper, the simulations converged after 600 years. The proposed simplified model, combined with the use of Monte Carlo simulations, offers better opportunities for a systematic assessment of risk compared with the currently used simulation programs using only a design year.
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