Generation Reliability Assessment in Power Market Using Fuzzy Logic and Monte Carlo Simulation

Abstract

Deregulation policy has caused some changes in the concepts of power systems reliability assessment and enhancement. In this paper, generation reliability is considered, and a method for its assessment using fuzzy logic is proposed. Monte Carlo simulation is used for reliability evaluation. Since generation reliability, merely focuses on interaction between generation complex and load, therefore in this paper, transmission and distribution systems are considered reliable. In this research, based on market type and its concentration, a fuzzy logic is proposed for modeling the market which is valid for all kinds of power pool markets. The proposed method is assessed on IEEE-reliability test system with satisfactory results. In all case studies, generation reliability indices are evaluated with different reserve margins and various load levels.