Generation of Daily Synthetic Series of Inflow Volume to the Las Cruces Dam, Nay., Mexico, Using the Svanidze Method

Abstract

The generation of synthetic series is important for simulations of the behavior in the long term of a reservoir or systems of them. The Svanidze method is easy to use to generate periodic time series for a selected period of time (monthly, fortnightly, weekly). Compared with other methods (eg PAR, PARMA) this method does not require a normal distribution assumption for the series. In this work the Svanidze method was applied to obtain synthetic series of the daily inflow volume to the Las Cruces hydroelectric project, located in the state of Nayarit, Mexico; with this method we achieve the objective of reproducing the behavior of the historical series at least in its first moment (the mean). In addition, similar correlation coefficient are observed from one day to the next with respect to what happened historically.