Generation of a long-term daily gridded precipitation dataset for the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) through temporal Reconstruction, Correction & Informed Regionalization-“ReCIR”

Abstract

This study attempted to generate a long-term (1961–2010) daily gridded precipitation dataset for the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) with orographic adjustments so as to generate realistic precipitation estimates, enabling hydrological and water resource investigations that can close the water balance, that is difficult, if not impossible to achieve with the currently available precipitation data products for the basin. The procedure includes temporal reconstruction of precipitation series at points where data were not recorded prior to the mid-nineties, followed by a regionalization of the precipitation series to a smaller scale across the basin (0.125 ° × 0.125 °), while introducing adjustments for the orographic effect and changes in glacier storage. The reconstruction process involves interpolation of the precipitation at virtual locations of the current (1995-) dense observational network, followed by corrections for frequency and intensity and adjustments for temporal trends at these virtual locations. The data generated in this way were further validated for temporal and spatial representativeness through evaluation of SWAT-modelled streamflow responses against observed flows across the UIB. The results show that the calibrated SWAT-simulated daily discharge at the basin outlet as well as at different sub-basin outlets, when forcing the model with the reconstructed precipitation of years 1973–1996, is almost identical to that when forcing it with the reference precipitation data (1997–2008). Finally, the spatial distribution pattern of the reconstructed (1961–1996) and reference (1997–2008) precipitation were also found consistent across the UIB, reflecting well the large-scale atmospheric-circulation pattern in the region.