Generation lengths of the world's birds and their implications for extinction risk.

Phylogenetically informed imputation methods have rarely been applied to estimate missing values in demographic data but may be a powerful tool for reconstructing vital rates of survival, maturation, and fecundity for species of conservation concern. Imputed vital rates could be used to parameterize demographic models to explore how populations respond when vital rates are perturbed. We used standardized vital rate estimates for 50 bird species to assess the use of phylogenetic imputation to fill gaps in demographic data. We calculated imputation accuracy for vital rates of focal species excluded from the data set either singly or in combination and with and without phylogeny, body mass, and life-history trait data. We used imputed vital rates to calculate demographic metrics, including generation time, to validate the use of imputation in demographic analyses. Covariance among vital rates and other trait data provided a strong basis to guide imputation of missing vital rates in birds, even in the absence of phylogenetic information. Mean NRMSE for null and phylogenetic models differed by <0.01 except when no vital rates were available or for vital rates with high phylogenetic signal (Pagel's λ > 0.8). In these cases, including body mass and life-history trait data compensated for lack of phylogenetic information: mean normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) for null and phylogenetic models differed by <0.01 for adult survival and <0.04 for maturation rate. Estimates of demographic metrics were sensitive to the accuracy of imputed vital rates. For example, mean error in generation time doubled in response to inaccurate estimates of maturation time. Accurate demographic data and metrics, such as generation time, are needed to inform conservation planning processes, for example through International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List assessments and population viability analysis. Imputed vital rates could be useful in this context but, as for any estimated model parameters, awareness of the sensitivities of demographic model outputs to the imputed vital rates is essential.

Comparative extinction risk analysis-which predicts species extinction risk from correlation with traits or geographical characteristics-has gained research attention as a promising tool to support extinction risk assessment in the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. However, its uptake has been very limited so far, possibly because existing models only predict a species' Red List category, without indicating which Red List criteria may be triggered. This prevents such approaches to be integrated into Red List assessments. We overcome this implementation gap by developing models that predict the probability of species meeting individual Red List criteria. Using data on the world's birds, we evaluated the predictive performance of our criterion-specific models and compared it with the typical criterion-blind modelling approach. We compiled data on biological traits (e.g. range size, clutch size) and external drivers (e.g. change in canopy cover) often associated with extinction risk. For each specific criterion, we modelled the relationship between extinction risk predictors and species' Red List category under that criterion using ordinal regression models. We found criterion-specific models were better at identifying threatened species compared to a criterion-blind model (higher sensitivity), but less good at identifying not threatened species (lower specificity). As expected, different covariates were important for predicting extinction risk under different criteria. Change in annual temperature was important for criteria related to population trends, while high forest dependency was important for criteria related to restricted area of occupancy or small population size. Our criteria-specific method can support Red List assessors by producing outputs that identify species likely to meet specific criteria, and which are the most important predictors. These species can then be prioritised for re-evaluation. We expect this new approach to increase the uptake of extinction risk models in Red List assessments, bridging a long-standing research-implementation gap.

Population viability analysis (PVA) has been increasingly used to guide conservation planning for many primate species. I present an assessment of a PVA for Philippine tarsiers (Tarsius syrichta) in Corella, Bohol. The objectives were to determine 1) area requirements and 2) spatial configurations of habitat patches necessary for viable populations in Corella. I used available life history parameters and ecological data for the Philippine tarsier derived from a radiotelemetry study on 4 male and 6 female Tarsius syrichta in Corella from early March to October 1999. I used analysis of the likelihood of extinction (ALEX), a Monte Carlo simulation model that uses pseudorandom numbers to simulate a scenario involving different stochastic processes. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model output, i.e. extinction risk, was influenced by the values used for newborn, juvenile, and adult mortality but the effect of variation on adult mortality was more pronounced; a slight increase in adult mortality renders the population very unstable. Simulation of movements between habitat patches showed that addition of diffusion corridors and variation in diffusion parameters did not significantly alter the probability of extinction of the species. Models are only as useful as the data that are input, and a major weakness of this model is the lack of detailed life history and mortality data for Philippine tarsiers. Future studies should concentrate on obtaining more life history data and ecological data from additional localities. I discuss key priorities for future research that include use of alternative PVA software, a simpler modeling approach, and extensive genetic studies of different Philippine tarsier island populations.

Stopping declines in biodiversity is critically important, but it is only a first step toward achieving more ambitious conservation goals. The absence of an objective and practical definition of species recovery that is applicable across taxonomic groups leads to inconsistent targets in recovery plans and frustrates reporting and maximization of conservation impact. We devised a framework for comprehensively assessing species recovery and conservation success. We propose a definition of a fully recovered species that emphasizes viability, ecological functionality, and representation; and use counterfactual approaches to quantify degree of recovery. This allowed us to calculate a set of 4 conservation metrics that demonstrate impacts of conservation efforts to date (conservation legacy); identify dependence of a species on conservation actions (conservation dependence); quantify expected gains resulting from conservation action in the medium term (conservation gain); and specify requirements to achieve maximum plausible recovery over the long term (recovery potential). These metrics can incentivize the establishment and achievement of ambitious conservation targets. We illustrate their use by applying the framework to a vertebrate, an invertebrate, and a woody and an herbaceous plant. Our approach is a preliminary framework for an International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Green List of Species, which was mandated by a resolution of IUCN members in 2012. Although there are several challenges in applying our proposed framework to a wide range of species, we believe its further development, implementation, and integration with the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species will help catalyze a positive and ambitious vision for conservation that will drive sustained conservation action.

Previous studies show that conservation actions have prevented extinctions, recovered populations, and reduced declining trends in global biodiversity. However, all studies to date have substantially underestimated the difference conservation action makes because they failed to account fully for what would have happened in the absence thereof. We undertook a scenario-based thought experiment to better quantify the effect conservation actions have had on the extinction risk of the world's 235 recognized ungulate species. We did so by comparing species' observed conservation status in 2008 with their estimated status under counterfactual scenarios in which conservation efforts ceased in 1996. We estimated that without conservation at least 148 species would have deteriorated by one International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List category, including 6 species that now would be listed as extinct or extinct in the wild. The overall decline in the conservation status of ungulates would have been nearly 8 times worse than observed. This trend would have been greater still if not for conservation on private lands. While some species have benefited from highly targeted interventions, such as reintroduction, most benefited collaterally from conservation such as habitat protection. We found that the difference conservation action makes to the conservation status of the world's ungulate species is likely to be higher than previously estimated. Increased, and sustained, investment could help achieve further improvements.

This article on biodiversity and life history data in huntsman spiders (Araneae: Sparassidae) includes the following: molecular data deposited on GenBank for 72 individuals representing 27 species in seven subfamilies, life history and behavioral data on 40 huntsman species from over two decades of observations, and morphological data for 26 species in the subfamily Deleninae as well as an undescribed representative of the genus Damastes. Molecular data include the nuclear genes histone H3 (H3) and 28S ribosomal RNA (28S rRNA), mitochondrial genes cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) and 16S ribosomal RNA (16S rRNA) were sequenced via Sanger sequencing by J.A. Gorneau. Life history data were collected in the field and in the lab by L.S. Rayor and include data on age at sexual maturity, lifespan, social classification, egg sac shape, how the egg sac is attached or carried, retreat location, retreat modification, retreat size relative to adult female body size, approximate mean body mass, and mean cephalothorax width. Morphological data on Deleninae and one Damastes sp. were scored by C.A. Rheims and includes information on the following characters: prosoma (fovea, posterior eye row shape (PER), anterior median eye (AME) diameter, AME-AME and PME-PME interdistances), male palp (embolic sclerite (PS), conductor sclerotized base (SB), tegular apophysis (TA), flange (f)) and female epigyne and vulva (epigynal sclerite (ES), spermathecal sacs (SS)). These data were used to clarify relationships among the Australian endemic Deleninae, as well as global patterns in sparassid evolution. The data demonstrate phylogenetic patterns in life history, social evolution, and natural history among the sparassids. These data contribute to future comparative research on sparassid systematics, evolution, and behavior. This data article complements a research article published in Molecular Phylogenetics and Evolution [1].

Primary burrowing crayfish life history and ecology is largely due to their cryptic habitat preferences. Cambarus monongalensis, arguably the most charismatic of all crayfishes, lacks basic life history and habitat data because of the aforementioned obstacles. This study seeks to determine the life history and ecological preferences of populations of C. monongalensis in the northern panhandle of West Virginia and Southwestern Pennsylvania with notes on its natural history. Life history data will include form change and reproductive patterns including juvenile size of departure from the maternal burrow. Habitat data were collected using external burrow morphology and burrow locations within a standardized area collected seasonally to determine the preferences and cyclical patterns of crayfishes. With these data, the conservation of this species, and others that follow a similar life history strategy, is possible

Assessing fishery collapses worldwide is hindered by the lack of biomass data for most stocks, leading to the use of landings-based proxies or the assumption that existing stock assessments are globally representative. We argue that the use of sparse assessments to evaluate fishery status requires model-based inference because assessment availability varies spatially and temporally, and we derive a model that extrapolates from assessment results to available landings, life history, and location data. This model uses logistic regression to classify stocks into different prediction bins and estimates the probability of collapse in each using cross-validation. Results show that landings, life history, and location are informative to discriminate among different probabilities of collapse. We find little evidence that regions with fewer assessments have a greater proportion of collapsed stocks, while acknowledging weak inferential support regarding regions with one or fewer assessments. Our extrapolation suggests that 4.5%–6.5% of stocks defined by landings data are collapsed, but that this proportion is increasing. Finally, we propose a research agenda that combines stock assessment and landings databases while overcoming limitations in each.

We consider a distinction for fishes, often made for birds and reptiles, between capital-breeding and income-breeding species. Species that follow a capital-breeding strategy tend to evolve longer intervals between reproductive events and tend to have characteristics that we associate with higher extinction risk. To examine whether these ideas are relevant for fishes, we assembled life history data for fish species, including an index of extinction risk, the interval between spawning events, the degree of parental care, and whether or not the species migrates to spawn. These data were used to evaluate two hypotheses: (1) fish species with a major accessory activity to spawning (migration or parental care) spawn less often and (2) fish species that spawn less often are at greater risk of extinction. We tested these hypotheses by applying two alternative statistical methods that account for phylogenetic correlation in cross-taxon comparisons. The two methods predicted average intervals between spawning events 0.13–0.20 years longer for fishes with a major accessory activity. Both accessories, above-average parental care and spawning migration, were individually associated with longer average spawning intervals. We conclude that the capital-breeding paradigm is relevant for fishes. We also confirmed the second hypothesis, that species in higher IUCN extinction risk categories had longer average spawning intervals. Further research is needed to understand the relationship between extinction risk and spawning interval, within the broader context of life history traits and aquatic habitats.

In zoos, life expectancy-the average lifespan of individuals within a population, and longevity-the maximum lifespan within a population, can be useful parameters for evaluating captive husbandry and animal welfare. Using life history and demographic data derived from regional studbooks, this study examined life expectancy and longevity in a total of 782 wild-caught (WC) and captive-bred (CB) varanid lizards of seven species maintained in North American zoos since 1926. The average lifespans for WC and CB animals were 6.3 ± 0.3 and 9.3 ± 0.4 years, respectively, with CB males living significantly longer than females (P = 0.009). A total of 26.4% of WC and 22.5% of CB animals experienced mortality during their first 2 years in captivity, with mortality during this period greatest among Varanus rudicollis and V. prasinus. A positive correlation was observed between life expectancy and adult body mass in captive-bred individuals (r = 0.981; P = 0.002). Wild-caught females with a history of successful reproduction had a significantly greater average lifespan than non-reproducing females (P < 0.0001). Results from this study suggest that varanids have not been reaching their lifespan capacities in North American zoos. In light of these findings, several husbandry-related factors which may be affecting the welfare and lifespans of varanids in zoos are identified and discussed. This study also highlights the utility of demographic and life history data in captive animal management, and offers a general framework for future herpetological studies of a similar nature.

ESR Endangered Species Research Contact the journal Facebook Twitter RSS Mailing List Subscribe to our mailing list via Mailchimp HomeLatest VolumeAbout the JournalEditorsSpecials ESR 6:193-198 (2008) - DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/esr00129 National Red Lists: the largest global market for IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria Jon Paul Rodríguez1,2,* 1Centro de Ecología, Instituto Venezolano de Investigaciones Científicas, Apdo. 20632, Caracas 1020-A,Venezuela 2Provita, Apdo. 47552, Caracas 1041-A, Venezuela *Email: jonpaul@ivic.ve ABSTRACT: The 2 major challenges currently confronting the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) with regard to the ‘red listing’ process are the taxonomic, and the geographic growth of the data base. Taxonomic growth refers to the objective of gradually assessing the risk of extinction of all the world’s species and periodically repeating such assessments. Geographic growth refers to the increasing number of people around the world interested in performing extinction risk assessments for various groups of organisms in their region or country. The taxonomic challenge, although a large and demanding task, can be addressed by expanding and strengthening the networks of experts organized within the IUCN Species Survival Commission (SSC), which represents a significant scaling-up of a well-developed, known model. However, no current structure within the IUCN has the mandate to address the geographic challenge; this requires the creation of new structures or mechanisms. At least 5 key activities must be implemented to effectively integrate the diffuse network of national assessors into the global red listing process: (1) large-scale publicizing of the Guidelines for Application of IUCN Red List Criteria at Regional Levels, and encouraging the work of national assessors; (2) establishing the IUCN Species Programme as the primary trainer and certifier of multipliers; (3) delegating the majority of training to national institutions; (4) creating a virtual data clearing house for national red lists, seamlessly linked to the global list; and (5) consolidating the IUCN Species Programme as the primary endorser of national red list assessments. Hundreds of regional and national red lists will probably be produced in the next decade using the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria, particularly because they are now recognized by international agreements such as the 2010 biodiversity target of the Convention on Biological Diversity and the United Nation’s General Assembly Millennium Development Goals. By catalyzing this process, the IUCN would expand the information on the world’s threatened species, while strengthening local scientific capacity for generating and using these data to support conservation action. KEY WORDS: Assessment of extinction risk · Conservation priorities · IUCN Red List · National red lists · Threatened species Full text in pdf format PreviousCite this article as: Rodríguez JP (2008) National Red Lists: the largest global market for IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria. Endang Species Res 6:193-198. https://doi.org/10.3354/esr00129 Export citation RSS - Facebook - Tweet - linkedIn Cited by Published in ESR Vol. 6, No. 2. Online publication date: December 30, 2008 Print ISSN: 1863-5407; Online ISSN: 1613-4796 Copyright © 2008 Inter-Research.

Data Deficient birds on the IUCN Red List: What don’t we know and why does it matter?

**Abstract:** To prevent additional seabird extinctions, conservation practitioners need to know what species to focus on, what actions to take, and where to take them. We created a spatially explicit meta-population viability analysis (mPVA) model for all IUCN threatened (Critically Endangered, Endangered, Vulnerable) seabirds. We generated the model parameters by combining a global database on the breeding location, population meta structure, and anthropogenic threats to seabirds with a detailed seabird demographic and population database. Potential conservation interventions can be entered into the model to estimate the change they will have on extinction risk. We completed an extinction risk analysis for 94 insular threatened seabird species to determine which species are at Extreme (>75% of model runs predicted species extinction) or High (50 - 75% of model runs predicted species extinction) risk of extinction within 100 years. Our analysis identifies five conservation priorities and opportunities: 1) seabird species at extreme or high risk of extinction in the next century, 2) families of seabirds (Procellarids) that include the largest proportion of species with extreme or high risks of extinction, 3) the potential for mitigation of extinction risk to be gained by conducting all feasible eradications of damaging invasive vertebrates on at least one breeding island of extreme/high risk seabirds, 4) the potential for mitigation of extinction risk to be gained by conducting translocations/reintroductions to establish/re-establish breeding colonies of extreme/high risk seabirds, and 5) opportunities where innovation of new tools or competencies will significantly reduce the probability of extinction of threatened seabirds. **Authors:** Donald Croll¹, Kelly Zilliacus¹, M. Tim Tinker², Diana Ruiz¹, Bernie Tershy¹ ¹University of California, Santa Cruz, ²Nhydra Ecological Consulting

The family of Columbidae, including pigeons and doves, remains understudied despite their patrimonial value and high ecological and conservation relevance. Currently, 353 extant columbid species are listed in the IUCN red list, with about 20% of them being threatened with extinction. However, there has been little effort so far to synthetize the available information on factors influencing extinction risk and the allocation of research effort among columbid species. In this context, using random forest models, the present study aims at quantitatively assessing to what extent environmental, life history and socio-political factors may drive the extinction risk of pigeons and doves and explain differences in scientific attention among species. We found that high risk of extinction in columbids is associated with small historical range, exposure to invasive alien mammals and living in isolated islands and/or at low altitudes, while the probability of population decline is associated with species body size, surrounding human density and narrow habitat breadth. We also evidenced a large disparity between species or population extinction risk and scientific interest. Indeed, most of the studies on columbids have been conducted by scientists from North America and Western Europe on their local species, whereas species from biodiversity hotspots, which are more at risk of extinction, have comparatively received little attention. This unequal acquisition of knowledge creates gaps that deserve to be filled in order to have a good appreciation of extinction risk in columbids and associated threats, through fair transnational cooperation, academic training and regional coordination in conservation-oriented research on columbids.

Chapter 4 Susceptibility of Sharks, Rays and Chimaeras to Global Extinction