Generation Expansion Planning Considering High Share Renewable Energies Uncertainty

Abstract

The objective of the power system Generation Expansion Planning (GEP) is to determine the best investment schedule of capacity, type of technology, time and where to install new plants to satisfy forecasted load within the given reliability criteria over a planning horizon. Renewable Energy Resources (RES) implementation within the GEP model represents a challenging problem due to the RES uncertainty prediction and representation difficulty. This paper presents a mathematical model for the RES uncertainty prediction and proposes an optimal planning model for long-term GEP with high sharing of RES considering the uncertainty. The RES are represented as a conventional source with zero fuel cost and high forced outage rate within the GEP model. The GEP model considers the RES uncertainties impact, carbon dioxide gas emission reduction rate, inefficient generation units' retirement and the gradual penetration increasing of RES over the planning period. Mixed integer linear programming is carried out using MATLAB software to solve the proposed GEP model for a 20 years planning period.