Generating human reliability estimates using expert judgment. Volume 2. Appendices. [PWR; BWR

Abstract

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission is conducting a research program to determine the practicality, acceptability, and usefulness of several different methods for obtaining human reliability data and estimates that can be used in nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessments (PRA). One method, investigated as part of this overall research program, uses expert judgment to generate human error probability (HEP) estimates and associated uncertainty bounds. The project described in this document evaluated two techniques for using expert judgment: paired comparisons and direct numerical estimation. Volume 2 provides detailed procedures for using the techniques, detailed descriptions of the analyses performed to evaluate the techniques, and HEP estimates generated as part of this project. The results of the evaluation indicate that techniques using expert judgment should be given strong consideration for use in developing HEP estimates. Judgments were shown to be consistent and to provide HEP estimates with a good degree of convergent validity. Of the two techniques tested, direct numerical estimation appears to be preferable in terms of ease of application and quality of results.