Generalizing the Wells-Riley Infection Probability: A Superstatistical Scheme for Indoor Infection Risk Estimation.

Abstract

Recent evidence supports that air is the main transmission pathway of the recently identified SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus that causes COVID-19 disease. Estimating the infection risk associated with an indoor space remains an open problem due to insufficient data concerning COVID-19 outbreaks, as well as, methodological challenges arising from cases where environmental (i.e., out-of-host) and immunological (i.e., within-host) heterogeneities cannot be neglected. This work addresses these issues by introducing a generalization of the elementary Wells-Riley infection probability model. To this end, we adopted a superstatistical approach where the exposure rate parameter is gamma-distributed across subvolumes of the indoor space. This enabled us to construct a susceptible (S)-exposed (E)-infected (I) dynamics model where the Tsallis entropic index q quantifies the degree of departure from a well-mixed (i.e., homogeneous) indoor-air-environment state. A cumulative-dose mechanism is employed to describe infection activation in relation to a host's immunological profile. We corroborate that the six-foot rule cannot guarantee the biosafety of susceptible occupants, even for exposure times as short as 15 min. Overall, our work seeks to provide a minimal (in terms of the size of the parameter space) framework for more realistic indoor SEI dynamics explorations while highlighting their Tsallisian entropic origin and the crucial yet elusive role that the innate immune system can play in shaping them. This may be useful for scientists and decision makers interested in probing different indoor biosafety protocols more thoroughly and comprehensively, thus motivating the use of nonadditive entropies in the emerging field of indoor space epidemiology.