Generalized Daily Reference Evapotranspiration Models Based on a Hybrid Optimization Algorithm Tuned Fuzzy Tree Approach

Abstract

Reference evapotranspiration (ET0) is an important driver in managing scarce water resources and making decisions on real-time and future irrigation scheduling. Therefore, accurate prediction of ET0 is crucial in the water resources management discipline. In this study, the prediction of ET0 was performed by employing several optimization algorithms tuned Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) and Fuzzy Tree (FT) models, for the first time, whose generalization capability was tested using data from other stations. The FISs and FTs were developed through parameters tuning using Genetic Algorithm (GA), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Pattern Search (PS), and their combinations. The FT was developed by combining several FIS objects that received ranked meteorological variables. A total of 50 FIS and FT models were developed and the model ranking was performed utilizing Shannon’s Entropy (SE). Evaluation outcomes revealed the superiority of the hybrid PSO-GA tuned Sugeno type 1 FT model (with R = 0.929, NRMSE = 0.169, accuracy = 0.999, NS = 0.856, and IOA = 0.985) over others. For evaluating the generalization capability of the best model, three different parts of datasets (all-inclusive, 1st half, and 2nd half) of the five test stations were evaluated. The proposed hybrid PSO-GA tuned Sugeno type 1 FT model performed similarly well, according to the findings, on the datasets of the test stations. The study concluded that the hybrid PSO-GA tuned Sugeno type 1 FT approach, which was composed of several standalone FIS objects, was suitable for predicting daily ET0 values.