Generalization of the Lindley distribution with application to COVID-19 data.

Abstract

Creating new distributions with more desired and flexible qualities for modeling lifetime data has resulted in a concentrated effort to modify or generalize existing distributions. In this paper, we propose a new distribution called the power exponentiated Lindley (PEL) distribution by generalizing the Lindley distribution using the power exponentiated family of distributions, that can fit lifetime data. Then the main statistical properties such as survival function, hazard function, reverse hazard function, moments, quantile function, stochastic ordering, MRL, order statistics, etc., of the newly proposed distribution have been derived. The parameters of the distribution are estimated using the MLE method. Then, a Monte Carlo simulation study is used to check the consistency of the parameters of the PEL distribution in terms of MSE, RMSE, and bias. Finally, we implement the PEL distribution as a statistical lifetime model for the COVID-19 case fatality ratio (in %) in China and India, and the new cases of COVID-19 reported in Delhi. Then we check whether the new distribution fits the data sets better than existing well-known distributions. Different statistical measures such as the value of the log-likelihood function, K-S statistic, AIC, BIC, HQIC, and p-value are used to assess the accuracy of the model. The suggested model seems to be superior to its base model and other well-known and related models when applied to the COVID-19 data set.