Generalizable machine learning approach for COVID-19 mortality risk prediction using on-admission clinical and laboratory features

Abstract

We aimed to propose a mortality risk prediction model using on-admission clinical and laboratory predictors. We used a dataset of confirmed COVID-19 patients admitted to three general hospitals in Tehran. Clinical and laboratory values were gathered on admission. Six different machine learning models and two feature selection methods were used to assess the risk of in-hospital mortality. The proposed model was selected using the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC). Furthermore, a dataset from an additional hospital was used for external validation. 5320 hospitalized COVID-19 patients were enrolled in the study, with a mortality rate of 17.24% (N = 917). Among 82 features, ten laboratories and 27 clinical features were selected by LASSO. All methods showed acceptable performance (AUC > 80%), except for K-nearest neighbor. Our proposed deep neural network on features selected by LASSO showed AUC scores of 83.4% and 82.8% in internal and external validation, respectively. Furthermore, our imputer worked efficiently when two out of ten laboratory parameters were missing (AUC = 81.8%). We worked intimately with healthcare professionals to provide a tool that can solve real-world needs. Our model confirmed the potential of machine learning methods for use in clinical practice as a decision-support system.