General Prevention: Does It Work?

Abstract

A meta-analysis based on 700 international empirical studies on negative general prevention with 7822 effect estimates investigates whether deterrent effects are dependent on the age of the target group, and with which criminal offences deterrent effects exist. Differences in the study design and the consideration of theoretical principles are also included in the analysis. It is shown that the latter in particular has a significant impact on the study result: if an economic theory of behavior is used as a basis, the deterrence hypothesis is refuted less often than with a recourse to criminological-sociological theories. Another result is that deterrent effects are confirmed relatively rarely for young people, and that deterrent effects vary depending on the criminal offence. They are relatively low in the case of homicide, and are higher—and significant on average—in the case of property damages and theft of more expensive goods. The probability of punishment has a deterrent effect which may, however, hardly be expected of more severe penalties.