General model analysis of aeronautical accidents involving human and organizational factors

Abstract

This paper presents the development of a general model of accident analysis according to the principal factors which influence aeronautical accidents. This study aims to develop a general model of accident analysis able to assess any aircraft accident, taking into account the pilot's abilities, as well as human, organizational, and environmental factors the data of this research was collected through literature, aircraft accident report analysis, technical visits to the center of certification of commercial aircraft pilots, survey of pilots and consultation with industry experts. From this model, it is possible to evaluate the influence of these factors and identify their dependence and relationship, and how they influence the system. With the aid of the Bayesian Networks technique, it is also possible to quantify the factors and assess which ones have more impact on the system. The results show the relationship between the factors that can influence the performance of the pilots and, therefore, they may indicate how these factors can impact on the success or failure of tasks related to flight procedures. The identification of the factors in each category (abilities, performance shaping factor, management and organizational factors, environmental factors) that are relevant to the sector. The identification and quantification of the relationship of dependence (arcs in BN and respective CPT) are also part of the innovative contribution of the paper. The results also may indicate subsidies for mitigating actions, collaborating to the management of operational safety of air transport and to assess the overall impact of the factors that determine any accident.