General Equilibrium and the Ban on British Beef Exports

Abstract

We present an ex post CGE evaluation of the ban on exports of British beef, imposed in 1996 and lifted in 1999. A specific aim is to assess the degree to which cattle, slaughtering and meat processing sectors in the UK recover their pre‐ban positions. More generally, the modelling exercise can be viewed as identifying the extent to which an economy recovers from a policy shock, or similar, when that shock is removed or reversed. Results suggest that, following removal of the ban, exports, output, factor use and trade balances in the directly affected sectors, in the short run, are below their 1996 pre‐ban levels. Whilst some recovery is evident in the long run, not all sectors regain their pre‐ban positions. The results offer further insights into the general equilibrium effects of what was a highly unusual policy shock to the UK economy, that of a three year ban on exports of beef.