Gender and Social Inequality at Oxbridge: measures and remedies

Abstract

ABSTRACT The men and women who enter the nation's universities each year are, for that year, the pool of candidates from which Oxford and Cambridge draw undergraduates. This pool is sliced into tranches according to A‐level score. Oxbridge's achievement in drawing from the pool is measured by its penetration rate (P) of the AAA tranche: this is the number taken from the AAA tranche divided by the total number in the tranche. The Oxbridge mean penetration of the AAA tranche in 1974 was 0.51, and in 1993, 0.38. This drop in the mean value is due to growth of the national AAA tranche by grade inflation at A‐level. The significant parameter measuring inequality in Oxbridge admissions is the distribution of cohort penetrations around the mean. In 1974, for the AAA tranche, the extremes were men from independent schools (P = 0.84) and women from state schools (P= 0.30), an indication of extraordinary social and gender inequality. In 1993 gender inequality was essentially nil, and the extremes were men and women from independent schools (P∼ 0.50) and men and women from state schools (P∼0.30). The tranche model for identifying an equality distribution of cohort numbers is based on the principle of equal cohort penetration: this implies that a score of AAA, for example, from a comprehensive school, is as valid for entry to Oxbridge as a score of AAA from an independent school. The equality target numbers for Oxbridge are calculated for each A‐level tranche and for each cohort, by multiplying the national cohort numbers in the tranche by the mean tranche penetration. These numbers are then summed over each tranche to yield the equality target numbers for each cohort. The result of this computation is an equality distribution of numbers with the same overall total and the same mean A‐level score as the status quo distribution of numbers. The percent change for each cohort from the status quo distribution to achieve equality is then known. In 1974 the only significant changes required were a contraction of ∼ 20% in the independent male cohort numbers to be transferred to state school females. In 1993 the contractions required were of order 8% in both independent school cohorts to be transferred to the state cohorts. The penetration rate is equal to the product of the application rate and the acceptance rate as defined by Robbins. The available data permit a precise calculation of penetration rate but not application rate or acceptance rate. Two steps are proposed to kick‐start a rapid increase in the state cohort penetration: (1) the elimination of the interview; (2) the identification of a target for the state entry based on the tranche model to be achieved within a specified period of time.