Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Reel Döviz Kurları ile Dış Ticaret İlişkisi

Abstract

Many developing countries must be able to finance existing foreign trade deficits in order to achieve macroeconomic stability as well as growth and development goals. Fluctuations in exchange rates due to capital inflows and outflows affect foreign trade significantly. In the current study, it was aimed to determine whether there is a relationship between exchange rates and foreign trade balance and which direction of this relationship, if any. For this purpose, nine developing countries, which are considered to be economically similar, are included in the analysis. In the analysis of the data of these countries, the period between 2009 and 2018 was selected. According to the results of the analysis made using the Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) method, real effective exchange rates were found to positively affect the foreign trade balance. Real interest, foreign direct investments, public expenditures and per capita national income as other variables in the analysis were found to have a negative effect on the foreign trade balance. All variables discussed have a high level of significance.