GEFCom2014 probabilistic electric load forecasting: An integrated solution with forecast combination and residual simulation

Abstract

We present an integrated solution for probabilistic load forecasting. The proposed solution was the basis for Jingrui Xie’s submission to the probabilistic load forecasting track of the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 (GEFCom2014), and consists of three components: pre-processing, forecasting, and post-processing. The pre-processing component includes data cleansing and temperature station selection. The forecasting component involves the development of point forecasting models, forecast combination, and temperature scenario based probabilistic forecasting. The post-processing component embodies residual simulation for probabilistic forecasting. In addition, we also discuss several other variations that were implemented during the competition.