Abstract
Jinan City, Shandong Province, is one of the important cities in modern industrial production and development in China. It plays an important role in the industrial history of modern China and has a very rich industrial cultural heritage. Hefei City, Anhui Province, from a small city, through reform and innovation, has become a rising star of Chinese cities, with per capita GDP approaching Jinan. In this paper, the single variable time series prediction model based on LSTM is used to fit the Area GDP of Jinan and Hefei in 31 years from 1990 to 2020, and the Area GDP data of the two cities in the next three years is predicted. Finally, combined with the development of foreign old industrial cities, this paper puts forward some suggestions for the future development of Jinan.
Highlights
In 2005, Yin [1] studied the development and characteristics of modern Jinan urban industry, and concluded that in the 1930s, Jinan, as a model of "non-treaty ports" economic development in the late Qing Dynasty, port opening and trade changed the traditional consumption demand of Jinan, produced new consumption areas, opened up new consumption and market space for Jinan, and provided a lot of funds and consumption channels for Jinan, it has a huge impact on the national industry of Jinan, so it promotes the positive development of modern machine industry in Jinan
In 2016, Gu[2] analyzed the economic development of Hefei in the 12th Five Year Plan, and found that Hefei's economic development has been restricted for a long time due to natural endowment, historical foundation, development opportunities and other factors, since the 12th Five Year Plan, Hefei has been promoted to implement the scientific outlook on development, and its economic growth vitality and competitiveness have increased significantly During the 13th Five Year Plan period, based on the position of world-class city cluster sub center in Yangtze River Delta, in 2020, the total GDP will be close to Jinan
This paper uses the single variable time series prediction model based on LSTM to fit the Area GDP data of Hefei and Jinan from 1990 to 2020, and forecasts the Area GDP of the two cities in the three years according to the model, and draws the time series diagram of Area GDP of Hefei and Jinan
Summary
In 2005, Yin [1] studied the development and characteristics of modern Jinan urban industry, and concluded that in the 1930s, Jinan, as a model of "non-treaty ports" economic development in the late Qing Dynasty, port opening and trade changed the traditional consumption demand of Jinan, produced new consumption areas, opened up new consumption and market space for Jinan, and provided a lot of funds and consumption channels for Jinan, it has a huge impact on the national industry of Jinan, so it promotes the positive development of modern machine industry in Jinan. Analyzing the trend of Area GDP of Jinan and Hefei, and using the time series model to predict the future Area GDP of Hefei and Jinan, can provide some reference for the development of the same old industrial cities as Jinan. This paper uses the single variable time series prediction model based on LSTM to fit the Area GDP data of Hefei and Jinan from 1990 to 2020, and forecasts the Area GDP of the two cities in the three years according to the model, and draws the time series diagram of Area GDP of Hefei and Jinan. According to the Area GDP forecast results and the development experience of foreign old industrial cities, this paper puts forward some suggestions for the future development of Jinan
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