GCC Country Risk and the “Arab Spring”

Abstract

It is undeniable that, while the underlying symptoms of what needs to be done in terms of economic and other reforms have been widely debated in the MENA region, the speed of events through the unleashing of the so-called “Arab Spring” that started in Tunisia in 2011, has taken many people by surprise. It is not just the MENA region that faces economic, social, or political problems, as the continuing Euro zone crisis has also demonstrated with its impact on both poor and rich European countries. Whoever is in power, has to grapple with complex political and socioeconomic challenges and face trade-offs, whether these are between security and liberty; economic growth and social justice; or private sector investment and public sector safety nets. At the same time, governments everywhere have to create jobs and none more so than in the MENA region, with its youthful population and large number of unemployed, especially among the young. Unemployment and frustration has been a prime factor that has generated the convulsions of the “Arab Spring”. As such, a key objective for all MENA countries, as well as in the GCC bloc, is programs that lead toward stability and consensual change, social and economic progress, national independence, and global and regional responsibility. Regardless of the final outcome, it is beyond doubt that the Arab world in general is undergoing a unique moment in its history, and how they grasp this moment will define the final changes for decades to come. For those who follow fundamental socioeconomic and political events, the “Arab Spring” is not unique, as other countries and societies have had their “Spring” such as the “Polish Springs” of 1956 and 1982, the “Prague Spring” of 1968, and the “Seoul Spring” of 1979 (Abdullah 2012; Bayat 2010; Filliu 2011).