Abstract
gcamland v1.0 is an open source R package that was built to allocate land across a variety of uses based on changes in agricultural yield and commodity price. The land allocation algorithm is based on the one included in the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). gcamland v1.0 includes the ability to run in a historical mode, enabling model validation and parameter estimation, or in a future mode, simulating changes in land use/land cover in the future. For both modes, gcamland v1.0 can run a single simulation or a large ensemble of simulations with different parameters. When ensembles are generated in the historical mode, gcamland v1.0 calculates the likelihood of a given parameter set by comparing to observational data. gcamland v1.0 is publicly available via GitHub and has can be adjusted to represent alternative scenarios or configured to different regions and land types. Funding statement: This research was supported by the Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy as part of the Multi-Sector Dynamics Program. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is operated by Battelle for the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830.
Highlights
Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National laboratory, College Park, Maryland, US Corresponding author: Katherine Calvin (Katherine.calvin@pnnl.gov) gcamland v1.0 is an open source R package that was built to allocate land across a variety of uses based on changes in agricultural yield and commodity price
The land allocation algorithm is based on the one included in the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). gcamland v1.0 includes the ability to run in a historical mode, enabling model validation and parameter estimation, or in a future mode, simulating changes in land use/land cover in the future
When ensembles are generated in the historical mode, gcamland v1.0 calculates the likelihood of a given parameter set by comparing to observational data. gcamland v1.0 is publicly available via GitHub and has can be adjusted to represent alternative scenarios or configured to different regions and land types
Summary
K, et al 2019 gcamland v1.0 – An R Package for Modelling Land Use and Land Cover Change. In Reference mode, the model is initialized to a recent year (2010) and estimates future land allocation through 2100 as economic conditions evolve In this mode, users can examine how land use and land cover might evolve in the future as agricultural yields or commodity prices change. In Hindcast mode, gcamland is initialized and run over a historical period Such simulations allow the user to evaluate model performance by comparing model results to observational data. When ensembles are run in Hindcast mode, gcamland will calculate the likelihood of a given set of parameters by comparing calculated land allocation to observed land allocation Such information can be used to estimate a probability density function for each parameter. Gcamland v1.0 Example By following the steps to run an individual simulation listed above, gcamland v1.0 will calculate land use and land cover in the USA through 2100 assuming commodity
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