Gaza: An Ever Rebellious Demography?

Abstract

The author shows that Gaza has a very atypical demography which should not only be described, but also explains, in the context of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, since demography is deeply embedded in this conflict. Advancing his argument, the author emphasizes that Gaza is hardly separable from the Palestinian context, as the population of the Strip does not come from elsewhere, but mainly from the south of Palestine, while the refugees in the West Bank came mainly from the north. He adds that having a huge population in this small area is primarily, but not solely, the outcome of the exodus that preceded and followed the war of 1948. He further indicates that Palestinian fertility patterns remained atypical. Ordinarily fertility should be declining in a region such as the Gaza Strip that is almost entirely urban, with high population density, and an economy focused not on agriculture but on secondary and service activities. Between 1999 and 2006, fertility in the West Bank decreased from 5.4 to 4.3 children per woman, that is to say, to a level significantly lower than that of the Israeli settlers in the occupied territory. Rebellious Gaza, as he describes it, experienced an even larger fall in fertility, from 6.8 in 1999 to 5.4 in 2006. He concluded that the optimistic scenario for Gaza’s future is a real Arab-Israeli peace accompanied by the return of Palestinian refugees (or a substantial fraction of them) to their homes.