Gaussian process regression for predicting water quality index: A case study on Ping River basin, Thailand

Abstract

<abstract> The water quality index (WQI) is an aggregated indicator used to represent the overall quality of water for any intended use. It is typically calculated from several biological, chemical, and physical parameters. Assessment of factors that affect the WQI is then essential. Climate change is expected to impact a wide range of water quality issues; hence, climate variables are likely to be significant factors to evaluate the WQI. We propose three statistical models; multiple linear regression (MLR), artificial neuron network (ANN), and Gaussian process regression (GPR) to assess the WQI using the climate variables. The data is the WQI of Ping River, which flows through the provinces in the north of Thailand. The climate variables are temperature, humidity, total rainfall, and evaporation. A comparison between these models is determined by model prediction accuracy scores. The results show that the total rainfall is the most significant variable to predict the WQI for the Ping River. Although these three methods can predict the WQI relatively good, overall, the GPR model performs better than the MLR and the ANN. Besides, the GPR is more flexible as it can relax some restrictions and assumptions. Therefore, the GPR is appropriate to assess the WQI under the climate variables for the Ping River. </abstract>