Abstract

Different drought indices often provide different diagnoses of drought severity, making it difficult to determine the best way to evaluate these different drought monitoring results. Additionally, the ability of a newly proposed drought index, the Process-based Accumulated Drought Index (PADI) has not yet been tested in United States. In this study, we quantified the severity of 2012 drought which affected the agricultural output for much of the Midwestern US. We used several popular drought indices, including the Standardized Precipitation Index and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index with multiple time scales, Palmer Drought Severity Index, Palmer Z-index, VegDRI, and PADI by comparing the spatial distribution, temporal evolution, and crop impacts produced by each of these indices with the United States Drought Monitor. Results suggested this drought incubated around June 2011 and ended in May 2013. While different drought indices depicted drought severity variously. SPI outperformed SPEI and has decent correlation with yield loss especially at a 6 months scale and in the middle growth season, while VegDRI and PADI demonstrated the highest correlation especially in late growth season, indicating they are complementary and should be used together. These results are valuable for comparing and understanding the different performances of drought indices in the Midwestern US.

Highlights

  • Drought is a major hazard that affects many different sectors around the world, especially agricultural production [1]

  • This study focuses on the 2012 agricultural drought in the Midwestern US as a case study, using six drought indices: SPI, Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Palmer Z-index, VegDRI, and Process-based Accumulated Drought Index (PADI), and the United States Drought Monitor (USDM)

  • A distinct feature of PADI is the accumulative severity, which quantifies since drought onset, instead of the monthly refreshed severity calculated in SPI or VegDRI

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Summary

Introduction

Drought is a major hazard that affects many different sectors around the world, especially agricultural production [1]. Examples of multivariate indices include the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) [16], Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) [17], Palmer Z-index [18], VegDRI [19], and Process-based Accumulated Drought Index (PADI) [20]. Vicente-Serrano et al found the SPI and SPEI were better at representing drought impacts on hydrological, agricultural, and ecological variables than other common drought indices [24]. This study focuses on the 2012 agricultural drought in the Midwestern US as a case study, using six drought indices: SPI, SPEI, PDSI, Palmer Z-index, VegDRI, and PADI, and the United States Drought Monitor (USDM). Different drought use the assessment to answer the broader question: is the ability of different drought indices to indices to capture agricultural drought severity andWhat impact?

Study Area and Data
The Midwestern
Drought Evolution Process Analysis
Drought Indices for Comparison
Drought Evolution Process
Spatio-temporal of 2012
Drought Severity Assessment from Yield Loss
Temporal Variation
10. Box and SPI-12
Drought
Comprehensive Comparison
Full Text
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