Gated Attention Recurrent Neural Network: A Deeping Learning Approach for Radar-Based Precipitation Nowcasting

Abstract

Precipitation nowcasting predicts the future rainfall intensity in local areas in a brief time that impacts directly on human life. In this paper, we express the precipitation nowcasting as a spatiotemporal sequence prediction problem. Predictive learning for a spatiotemporal sequence aims to construct a model of natural spatiotemporal processes to predict the future frames based on historical frames. The spatiotemporal process is an abstraction of some of the spatial things in nature that change with time, and they usually do not change very dramatically. To simplify the model and facilitate the training, we considered that the spatiotemporal process satisfies the generalized Markov properties. The natural spatiotemporal processes are nonlinear and non-stationary in many aspects. The processes are not satisfied with the first-order Markov properties when making predictions, such as the nonlinear movement, expansion, dissipation, and intensity enhancement of echoes. To describe such complex spatiotemporal variations, higher-order Markov models need to be used for the modeling. However, many of the previous models for spatiotemporal prediction constructed were based on first-order Markov properties, losing information on the higher-order variations. Thus, we propose a recurrent neural network which satisfies the multi-order Markov properties to create more accurate spatiotemporal predictions. In this network, the core component is the memory cell structure of the gated attention mechanism, which combines the current input information, extracts the historical state that best matches the existing input from the historical multi-period memory information, and then predicts the future. Through this principle of the gated attention, we could extract the historical state information that is richer and deeper to predict the future and more accurately describe the changing characteristics of motion. The experiments show that our GARNN network captures the spatiotemporal characteristics better and obtains excellent results in the precipitation forecasting with radar echoes.