Gastrointestinal cancer mortality rate global trends over the last century.

Abstract

457 Gastrointestinal Cancer Mortality Rate Global Trends Over the Last Century Background: Global gastroenterology cancer mortality trends have drastically changed over past decades due to alterations in risk factors such as diet, populations, exposures, and medical advancements. This study investigates specifically how meat consumption, the biggest evolving risk factor for GI cancer mortality, has influenced various gastrointestinal incidence rates globally. Although the correlation between meat consumption and cancer risk has been investigated, a global temporal study investigating the national mortality rates of gastrointestinal cancers relating to meat production remains unexplored. We researched causes for the trends between meat production and GI cancer mortality in the USA, Canada, Japan, France, and Singapore. Methods: Cancer mortality data was collected from the WHO Cancer Mortality Database, specifically the IARC database. Meat consumption data was unavailable between the 1960s-2010, so meat production data was used and obtained from the FAOSTAT. Results: The pancreatic cancer mortality rate increased in each country except Canada. This spike is due to increased meat consumption, obesity, lack of screening modalities, poor prognosis, and late diagnosis of the disease. Canada’s 1% drop in mortality rate can be attributed to a decreased smoking rate amongst men (62% to 16% from 1965-2017) as well as a decline in meat consumption. The mortality rates of gastric and colorectal cancer (CRC) have decreased despite a meat production increase. Decreased H. pylori prevalence (Europe: 48.8% to 39.8%, North America: 42.4% to 26.6%, and Western Asia: 53.6% to 54.3%) , better food preservation, and improvement in environmental conditions have lowered gastric cancer incidence. The CRC mortality rate in the USA, Canada, Japan, and France decreased mostly due to colonoscopy screening measures, better treatment, and decreased red meat consumption. In Singapore, increased obesity and high caloric diets account for an increased CRC mortality rate despite decreased meat production. This rate is exacerbated by lower screening rates due to decreased CRC risk awareness. Conclusions: Gastric and CRC mortality rates decreased despite increased meat production, while pancreatic cancer incidence rates have increased. These trends are further investigated and necessary to understand to lower the mortality rates of GI cancers on a global scale.