Gastric and Esophageal Cancers Incidence Mapping in Golestan Province, Iran: Using Bayesian–Gibbs Sampling

Abstract

ObjectivesRecent studies of esophageal cancer (EC) and gastric cancer (GC) have been reported to have high incidence rates of these cancers in Golestan Province of Iran. The present study describes the geographical patterns of EC and GC incidence based on cancer registry data and display statistically significant regions within this province. MethodsIn order to map the distribution of upper gastrointestinal cancer, relative risk (RR) were calculated. Therefore, to estimate a more reliable RR, Poisson regression models were used. The adjusted models (adjusted to urban–rural area, sex, and grouped age proportion) were utilized. We considered two-component random effects for each observation, an unstructured (noncorrelated) and a group of “neighbor” (correlated) heterogeneities. We estimated the model parameters using Gibbs sampling and empirical Bayes method. We used EC and GC data that were registered with Golestan Research Center of Gastroenterology and Hepatology in the years 2004–2008. ResultsThe EC and GC maps were drawn for 2004–2008 in the province. Kalaleh and Minoodasht counties have a high RR of EC and GC in the years of study. In almost all years, the areas with a high RR were steady. ConclusionThe EC and GC maps showed significant spatial patterns of risk in Golestan province of Iran. Further study is needed to multivariate clustering and mapping of cancers RRs with considering diet and socioeconomic factors.