Gas and energy security in Germany and central and Eastern Europe

Abstract

Russia's weaponization of gas supplies caused a shock to the energy security of Central and Eastern Europe in 2022. Countries responded by increasing alternative energy supplies and developing new natural gas supply routes, namely through increased LNG import capacity and new interconnectors. At the same time, market forces in the form of higher prices largely ensured an efficient allocation of scarce gas across the region and encouraged the necessary savings. We examine how gas flows to and within the region have been changing in the short- and medium-term and explore the role of renewable and nuclear energy as well as hydrogen in the long-term. We conclude that mitigating the effects of this shock requires the EU to prioritize policies that foster the integrity of its energy market. Government policies and higher fossil fuel prices will encourage the build-up of renewables, increasing energy security medium term. Only in combination with consistently high energy savings and the procurement and distribution of sufficient gas volumes from the global LNG market can Russian supplies be replaced. It is thus the interplay of supply and demand measures that allowed Central and Eastern Europe to withstand the extraordinary shock of 2022.