Game of Seats: Electoral Rules, Revolutions, and Affiliation Switching in Ukraine, 1990–2014

Abstract

Since gaining its independence in 1990, Ukraine has experienced two revolutions and a war in the east of the country. Meanwhile, it has sampled all three major electoral systems (majoritarian, proportional, and mixed) and has created dozens of major parties and political blocs. Such a volatile context has consequences for such crucial political issues as accountability and circulation of the political class. At the same time, it allows researchers to address questions concerning the sources of change and stability in the politics of countries in transition. In particular, the case of Ukraine allows us to pinpoint the effects of popular upheavals and changing institutional arrangements on the stability of a political scene and the population of politicians. Data limitations of previous studies have prevented such a necessarily detailed temporal accounting. We analyze it for all Ukrainian MP hopefuls during the 1990–2014 period using the East European Parliamentarian and Candidate data (EAST PaC). The issue of political stability was approached by examining affiliation switching and dropping out in all consecutive elections to the Verkhovna Rada. The results reveal that revolutionary events had relatively minor immediate effects on the circulation of the political class, while individual strategies were highly dependent on the electoral rules working in conjunction with other traits of the political system.