Game-changing trends and forces for agricultural financing in sub-Saharan Africa toward 2055: Verification and prioritization through the real-time Delphi method

Abstract

This article reports on a research effort that looked at the future of agricultural financing in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) toward 2055. The real-time Delphi method was used to verify key megatrends that should define the future of agriculture and agricultural development in the region. The implications of these trends for agricultural financing, together with potential game-changing forces with regard to the future delivery of financial services to agricultural producers, were also prioritized. The real-time Delphi method was employed to check both the future importance and probability of occurrence of the identified trends and corresponding disruptive technologies, business models, innovations in value-chain financing, market configurations, and institutional innovations. In addition, the method was also used to investigate the future perspectives of experts and to identify any specific, promising technological areas, innovations, and business models. Key elements of a desired future for agricultural financing in SSA were also confirmed.