Gambler''s Fallacy in the Classroom?

Abstract

Does students' ’hand tremble after marking three consecutive identical answers in a multiple choice test? We design an experiment to study if students who face a multiple choice test with streaks of identical answers achieve less points and we investigate some potential mechanisms. We do not find a clear treatment effect, as multiple choice test points were not signi cantly lower in the treatment group. However, we observe that indeed the likelihood to change to an incorrect answer is higher in the treated group. The number of identical previous answers does not seem to explain these changes to an incorrect answer.