Gambler's attention and the mean-variance relation: Evidence from China

Abstract

Research from psychology suggests that gambler's fallacy and limited attention matter for individual decision making involving risk. We dub this combination “gambler's attention” and use it to provide a behavioral perspective on the debate over the market's mean-variance relation. A gambler's attention index is developed to divide the sample period into high-attention and low-attention regimes. Using data from China, we find clear-cut evidence that the market's mean-variance relation is significantly positive in low-attention periods but not in high-attention periods. The results are consistent with the notion that gambler's attention undermines an otherwise positive risk-return tradeoff in high-attention periods.