Gallup Polling Accuracy in a Multi‐Party Context: An Empirical Study of Twelve Danish Political Parties 1957‐80*

Abstract

This article examines the accuracy of the Gallup poll in a situation involving multiple political parties of different sizes Using data collected by the Danish Gallup Institute 1957–1980. the article demonstrates that polling results, except those of small parties, are well within the sampling error. An explorative analysis of the data, showing that there is a normal distribution of the differences between election results and polling values, provides the possibility of a simple method of interpreting Gallup poll data at a desirable level of confidence.